FEB id *94 14:15 PAGE. G25-226 TO 17@22952 FROM KAMAN SCIENCES CORP (ce) Air toutes through Wake and Kwajelein: favorable. (4) Surface routing inside 500 miles consi- ' dered in its relation to all kmown transient shipping: favorable. ec. Setentific (1) High altitude sampling operations - favor(2) Light transmission for scientific experinents apes favorable. 6. CONCIOSIONS: a. Laok of fallout information from previous shots of comparable yield was a serious handicap. bd. The yield of ED wes three times the most pro- bable value and twice the probable upper limit with the result that more debris was carried up and diffused over a much larger area than was toought possible. ce. The original source cannot be considered as a point or a relatively amall area but must be considered to be an area of about a hundred miles in diameter. also depends on yield. This diameter ad. The radioactivity of the debris can be considered proportional to yield. Radioactive materiel in the SHARD cloud was thus two to three times was was expected. @. An appreciable fraction of the observed fallout oan only be accounted for by agsuming that it originated in . the stratosphere. For such particles to reach the ground at obServed times, their diameter must have bean in exeess of 100 microns. 2. forecast for shot time winds at shot time was essentially correct. Variation from forecast trajectories was approximately 10 degrees in significant upper levels; unfor- tunately, the variation was in the wrong direction (See Figure 3). The small variations observed at lower levels were also in an unfavorable direction. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the winds alomt forecast approached the limits of accuracy of the wind observations themselves and ware well within the nore mal forecast error. g@The fallout pattern extended from the Bikini atoll to the east northeast. Considerable widening of the pattern took place due to diffusion. 4 The intensity of che