STATUS OF GLOBAL
RADIGACTIVE-FALLOUT PREDICTIONS

LESTER MACHTA
U, S. Weather Bureau, Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.

ABSTRACT
The atmosphere transports, dilutes, and removes radioactive contaminants. Contaminants added almost anywhere in the earth’s atmo-

sphere can be brought to man’s environment or food. The details of individual trajectories and precipitation-scavenging areas play prominent
roles for tropospheric sources, and the statistical behavior of the
Stratosphere controls the long-term transport and dilution of radioactive material at higher levels.

INTRODUCTION
The objective of this paper is to summarize certain aspects of

predictions of man-made radioactive fallout. Included is adiscussion of
the fate of radioactive gases and particulates injected into both the troposphere and the stratosphere. However, a number of important items
are entirely or largely omitted; among these are local fallout and closein contamination, stratosphere—troposphere exchange, precipitationscavenging mechanisms, special removal mechanisms such as might

exist over the oceans, redeposition, and others.

TROPOSPHERIC FALLOUT
Predictions of the fate of radioactivity introduced into the tropo-

Sphere fall in two categories, The first is a forecast of the generalized
fallout made well in advance of an event in order to plan for or to ap-

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