cattle would be expected to comprise a composite random sample of the

vegetation and soils present in the compound, and the contribution of
each sampling stratum to the herd's composite diet of vegetation and
soil would be proportional to the area of the sampling stratum divided
by the total area of the compound.
In subsequent sections of this report, the means and standard deviations
of I., C,I1_, and C_ will be estimated.
These estimates of population
parameters, wp and o, and a random number generator described in Appendix I
will be used to generate synthetic composite random samples of I
which are iterative solutions of Equation 1 for which each of the’ four
factors on the right side of the equation is an independent random
variable specified by its estimated mean and standard deviation.
The
means and standard deviations of these synthetic samples will provide
the basis for generating synthetic composite random samples of I
Comparing these simulation results with the previous estimates of4t
;
described in the Introduction, should provide a rough idea of the probable accuracy of Tou estimation in general.
Vegetation Ingestion Rate
The fistulated steer data mentioned in the introduction and discussed
elsewhere in this volume (see the article by D. D. Smith) provide the
best empirical basis for estimating rates of vegetation ingestion by
cattle grazing the inner compound of Area 13.
At this writing, however,
the only data at hand are the concentrations

(nCi/kg)

of plutonium in

the vegetation and fluid components of rumen contents.
Data concerning
the weights of these components, the body weights of the fistulated
steers, and the fraction of daily intake represented by a 24-hour rumen
sample are also required for estimating I
While simulation studies
based on fistulated steer data will be defurred until the complete data
set is available for examination, it is worth noting here that the
plutonium concentrations published in Appendices III and IV of Smith's

paper (this volume) appear to be lognormally distributed and that this
is quite in line with expectations based on examination of other data
sets concerning the distribution of plutonium in Area 13.

For simulation purposes, estimates of vegetation ingestion rates are
based on a theoretical model formulated as follows:

I, = 163.5 wo-73/4.5 D

(2)

where I
is the vegetation ingestion rate, g/day,
1863.5 W9-73 is the digestible energy, kcal/day, required for main~
tenance of an adult cow (Siegmund, ed., 1967),
Wis the total live body weight, kg, of the cow,
4.5 keal/g is the caloric value of most plant materials (Golley,

and

1961),
Dis the digestibility (dimensionless) of ingested vegetation.

486

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