through an inclusive analysis of the entire weapon use operation,
To
base a production program on the nebulous argument given as to military oe
acceptability would be quite wrong.
|
Dr, Rabi inquired from Dr. von Neumann as to the adequacy of the _
theory of preinitiation.
The latter replied that it stands intermediate
between the theory of criticality, which is in very good shape, andthe
theory of yield,
The theory of yield is good only to about a factor of
two without onpirical corrections based on data from the shots which have
been fired; with these corrections it gives accurate results,
Dr, Rabi
said that it is the early stages of neutron multiplication which are not
wellunderstood; these are crucial in the preinitiation problem,
He also
said that a good theory of the thermonuclear weapon is not available
either, and furthermore that it is not well established what would be
the difference in weapon effects between, for example , 3 megatons and
7 megatons.
|
|
oe
‘The summaryof Dr, Froman's letter in AEC 374/8 stated, inpart, that
.
there is no significant evidence from tests that preinitiation theory3is
incorrect and that there is a very good basis for believing the predictions
| of preinitiation probability.
Dr, Froman's analysis gave the result that
in thirty three tests the calculated probability that preinitiation would
have escaped detection (as it did) is 0.42.
The Secretary pointed out.
_ that. while this result shows that the shot results are consistent with
preinitiation theory, they cannot be taken as quantitative confirmation
of theory,: For example, the fact that no preinitiation was observed is
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the 33 shots,
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