Risk Considerations

The Task Group and its technical advisors have reviewed the available
information froa ICxP, WISCEAR, and the National Academy of Science BEIR
Committee that could be used to estimate the health risk that may be
associated trith long term exposures at the level of the radiation dose
and soil renoval criteria being recommended,

It is clear fron this

review that knowledge of the relationship between radiation dose and
effects of that dose on man as characterized in dose-effect curves is
incomplete even for external radiation exposures.

For internal enitters

and particularly for plutcniun, the situation is even less satisfactory.
UNSCLAR has summarized their fundings by stating that one should not
extrapolate in a linear fashion from effects scen at hish doses end dose
rates to effects at low deses and dose rates since there is strenz
likelyhood of recovery and repair.

The SrIR

Conmittce, using oniy hunan

gata, concluded that since the low dose data were incomplete, one should
conservatively assume a linear no-threshold dose-affect curve draym
through data obtained at hign doses and dese rates.

The Comuaittee further

sugsested that if this linear no-threshold curve is assumed to be correct,
it follows that 6,000 cases of cancer would be produced eacn year in 4
population of 200,990,009 peopie exposed at a rate of 0.17 Rem/yr.
(Tais is the FRC RPG for population groups - see Table I.)

For the

Enewetalk population of less than 590 exposed at the same level, one ca:
make the following estinate:
6 x 19? cases/yr x 50) people = 1.5 x 10°? cases of cancer/yr
2x 108 people

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