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ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECT OF INCREASED AWARENHSS OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABLE ATTYTUDES
OF PEOPLE TOWARD THE INITIATION OF GENERA | WAR
BY THE DULY CONSTITUTED LEADERS OF NATIONS
As noted in the introduction (see page 5), we have felt somewhat less qualified to render an estimate
on this question since it obviously requires a greater background of “‘area experttse”’ than exists inj the Panel.
A reasonably comprehensive estimate on this point would have to take into account the probable distortions involved in the development of increased awareness on the part of the publics of different nations.
It would need to assess to some degree the impact (or lack of it) of public attitudes on the actipns of duly
constituted leaders of nations.
It would also involve a comprehensive knowledge of the backggound,tra-
ditions, cultures, and temperaments of various peoples.
We believe, nevertheless, that it is a reasonable generalization that the people of all nations, when
confronted with the capability of mutual nuclear destruction that is postulated, will be reluctantjto support
the initiation of general war by their duly constituted leaders. We recognize, however, that it}is possible
that the attitudes of the people of some nations might be modified if they were led to expect at striking
the first blow would enable them to escape a massive retaliatory nuclear attack, which re resents, of
course, a departure from the postulate of mutual annihilation.
So far as the United States is concerned, we believe that only a small number of people would favor
a preventive war. Nevertheless, the topic is obviously important and should be taken into acfount as a
possible danger by those carrying out the program ofcitizen involvement.
Some members of the Panel believe that in a few nations, under the spell of either religiouf fervor or
extreme nationalism, the attitudes of the people would support the initiation of general war even in the
face of almost certain massive nuclear retaliation. Others disagree, or feel that they have no special
qualifications to exercise judgment on this point. All agree, however, that it would be more [ruitful for
the area experts available to the Government to commenton the generalization contained in the second
paragraph above.
TORRSEORET
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