(2) If wind shear is >10° but € 120°, minor axis is 4 of asfor axis. This is case for 20,000 feet winds to tropopause, and sonewhat less for 65,000 to 95,000 feet winds. me ie ‘y (This is case of 0-5,000 feet winds and 5-20,000 feet winds.) a oek looked at). ent (1) If wind shear is <10° for the levels in question, ainor 1/8 to 1/4 of the major axis (which is the entire vector for Levels ” axis is cp Meh wert (3) If shear at levels making up vector under study is >120° draw circle with diameter = to entire resultant vector. CONCLUSIONS: 1. Prom overall fall-out picture, it is concluded that fall-out may have reached Rongelap Island and Ailinginae later than the pessimistic tine 2e From initial land survey reports on icngelap Atoll with levels st Erippa Island (NB part of Atoll) still at 2.8 to 3.5 r/hr on B plus 7 days, the picture for heaviest fall-out patterns north of this area is estab> ished. The relatively light fall-out at Utirik (258 of the hot area), hizher levels of intensity at Bikar (East and downwind of the hot area, i.e..6 r/hr at 2 plus 33 hours almost in downwind line with the superimposed ellipses or hot areas but definitely beyond the hot shadow), confirm the belief in che ass=ced area of hot fall-out pattern abova. Wotho (SSE of the area and fro= Gro-wnd Zero) received practically nothing because resultant vector wind speed froa the stem and, perhaps some of the mushroom fringe, was so low in velocity through the SE to South from Ground Zero, Zminetok received at about EB pics 11 hours a build up to about 10 mr/hr for a period of about ive hours. 3- This type of analysis gives a feeling only for pattern of fall-out because it does not tell exactly rhen the fall-out errives. Eowever, 4% ° epparent that the 200-200 plus roentgens lifetine dosage line sessed on or close to ailinginae, Rongelap Island and Rongerik which are at 20-100 alles in cases of dilinginae and Rongelap and 130 miles to Rongerik froma sreund Zero. The 1,000 plus roentgens lifetime dosage lines are exceeded as cue goes north from Rongelap Island to northern islands of that atoll. Tbis analysis is based on: (1) logical use of wind patterns existing during shot tine to _ fall-out, (2) multiple shot (tower or ground) fall-out pattern data froa Nevada Proving Grounds over last 3 years, and (3) experience snd date froa IVY-WIkE (limited cross-wind and upwind) and CiSTIS-2rayC itself. 4e Rongerik radiation intensity levels are ‘mown a® caset and evccuaticn time; calculated roentgen dosage agrees with actual observations froz fi badges at this site 5. The heaviest fall-cut pattern res expected to pass north of ta: aca eest cortheast from Ground Zero. Inelcsure 6 cAI it hielide ne of H plus 5 and & plus 4 hours, respectively.