£,

«$s in previous operations » weather was 2 major problen,

particularly with regard to winds aloft for fall-out considcrations,
were experienced because of unacceptable fall-out patterns.

Oclays

The tests were

carried out during a period of the year when the weather in the Uarshell
Islands area was reasonably favorable; it was not an unusual season from a
climatological point of view,

Suture tests mist expect sindlar delays due

to weather unless flexible tiring techniques such as firing on barges in the
open ocean or sir drops are developed which will mininize the amount end the
activity of fall-out,
8.

Raddological Safety

(1) Since six shots in the megaton range were scheduled for the
operation, the isdsafe Plan placed particular emphasis on the possibility of
fall-out on populated islands and trensicnt shipping.

Forecasting ridic=

active fall-out for C.STLE wos initially seriously handicapped by the absence
of definitive data on the effects of very high yield (megaton) devices.

Information from Operation IVY (IIKE Shot) was extremely limited and as 3
consequence misleading in many respects,

In particular, early C..STLE

,

experience indicated thet fall-out periods on the order of six to twelve hours.

while adequate for ylelds obtained prior to IVY, were insdequate for C..STLZ.
It wes spparent that pre-shet forecests would be required of wind conditions
for periods up to H plus 16 to H plus 24 hours with = high degree of accuracy
in order to ingurc that the significant fall-out would trke place in sccepte
able areas during this period of tise,

Generelly, this requirement involved

the forecasting of the stability of wind patterns, or the expected limits on

the variation of the pattern during the period of fall-out.

Further, it

required wind forecasting for several different tines end many seographical
positlene tnrowwbout the projected fall-out ares.tacmcr.tousunnort 3 caw.

Select target paragraph3