Nee cies besiege tiggee2 ats. cpesee ho cdot eeceecy pmete eee eect ce see eeER enSERGAa cee i Sa itSe i es CONFIDENTIAL 11. Since immediate postattack rescue and evacuation efforts may be impossible because of high radiation levels, public and private shelters need to be designed and stocked to permit survival within the shelter for periods as long as 10 days. 12. With widespread attack on many targets, mass evacuation tactics could result in 100 percent lethality among the evacuated population. This could be true even if the evacuated city were not itself successfully attacked. Costs 13. The cost of an evacuation program for 170 major cities should not exceed $50 million in direct costs for plans, maps, and traffic signs and for recruiting, training, and equipping traffic control personnel. Indirect costs due to loss of wages, output, and profits are not considered in this estimate and could be very high, especially if the enemy should adopt “spoofing” tactics. 14. The cost of combination public-private shelter programs is largely dependent on the degree of protection desired. Two programs considered in this appendix are estimated at $6 billion and $33 billion each, for 170 majorcities. RECOMMENDATION 1, The Army should support the following activities: a. A start should be made on a reduction-of-vulnerability plan and an underground shelter plan for each metropolitan target area, looking toward reduction of target values in the core area and a spacing of underground shelters to match future population ‘ distribution at the expected date of ultrashort warning for 1cBM. b. Construction of underground shelters should be started as soon as firm longrange shelter needs in any geographical subdivision of the metropolitan target area can be determined. The current “survival studies” being undertaken by variouscities with federal funds should be utilized to determine local shelter needs rather than to designate evacuation routes. ce. The entire civil defense concept of postattack operations should be reexamined in light of probable high radiation levels that may render traditional rescue, medical, fire od saleIE. BocesoatmealOre capitan fighting, and other services at or near the site of the attack impossible. d. Intensive rap effort should be expended on testing existing shelter designs and on the design of multipurpose and improvised shelter. ORO-—R-17 (App B)