CHAPTER 6 - FEASIBILITY OF DEVELOPING FALLOUTPREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR OPERATIONAL
APPLICATION
1. The Subcommittee states that "civil defense can use existing
prediction systems only in planning and not operationally..." (underlining added).
2.
It is important to understand that the prediction systems
referred to in the report are for predicting what the dose rates (R/hr)
or total doses will be at a particular time and at a particular place.
"Prediction" as used here does not refer to estimating "time of arrival"
of fallout (if it arrives) since such estimates would depend primarily
on wind speeds which could be determined with considerable reliability.
3,
Also, it is important to understand what is meant by “prediction
techniques for operational application." Specifically, this term
is used to describe the prediction after an enemy weapon actually has
been detonated of fallout radiation dose rates at various times and
at various locations.
Thus,
the Subcommittee's concern about use
of existing prediction systems does not refer to civil defense
operations such as pre-attack evacuation of cities, or calculations
of risks based on studies of hypothetical attacks, or the like.
4. Even if an operational prediction scheme based on an extrapolation technique is developed, careful examination of the types of
protective actions that might be taken based on the predictions is
needed, This should include a careful analysis of the probable benefits
in terms of the net expected lives saved or lost, and doses reduced
or increased,
5.
In any case, a policy which calls for the movement of people
out of a predicted path of fallout, especially if they have been
crowded into some NFSS-identified facility or other protected location,
seems questionable.
This is due to at least four factors:
(1) inherent
uncertainties of the predictions, as discussed above; (2) uncertainties
about dependable communications; (3) the inherent difficulties of
moving large numbers of people under unrehearsed and highly stressful
conditions in a short period of time; and (4) moving them in a direction
and for a distance not definitely known until the signal from the
detection system has been received.
*
-
re
ys
rd
rs
et
ot
,
pO
r4
“4
ey
ps
ra
II-12