~8meaningless, Teller continues "If testing does not resume, it will be necessary
do
to development new techniques which wxkk not involve nuclear weapons tests, to
carry us as far as possible in the development of new nuclear weapons.
Depending
upon the nature of the designs involved in the full yields desired, one can hope
for a substantial measure of development.
It is clear, however, that the rate of
progress in weapons development would be very markedly decreased by a continuance
of the moratorium, even if substitute development efforts were expanded,
By
more extensive and
elaborate calculations, use of mechanical safing and a more liberal use of fissile
material in device design, etc., we would hope even under circumstances of a
complete moratorium to be able to make one or perhaps two generations of weapons
development progress, at least in some areas.
While the uncertainty persist, the
become
lab is making a very extensive effort to zuma and remain prepared for testing
underground and in deep space so as to be able perform such tests if national
policy so decides.
We consider it our responsibility to be able, in such a case,
to obtain the necessary diagnostic data,
This constitutes our principal effort
in the testing area which has been cut back from 350 during Hardtack to a level
of the order of 150 direct personnel."
The rest of the review notes sks the
details of lab developments in the various classes of weapons as well as other
programs such as Plowshare, Sherwood, and Pluto.
Noted is that some investigation
has been given to the detection of tests in outerspace as well as the programs
completed and underway for test detection underground.
The next program letter from Teller to Shute on 2 Feb. 1960 opens with some
discussion of the main problem which is the lack of testing:
have now taken place for almost a year and a half.
no nuclear tests
Any estimate of the probability
of their resumption either this year or next involves considerable uncertainty.
Therefore,
the lab must make plans to cover the situation both in case of a resumption