009516 eee 2. EVENT PREDICTIONS 2.1 The associated fallout patterns included with the course layouts in the form of overlays represent the best available estimates of the levels of fallout through which the ships will pass. It is to be emphasized that these patterns are not a forecast of what is expected but rather a picture of the maximum situation. 2.2 These fallout patterns were obtained by scaling up surface JANGLE data as modified by Mike-IVY data and are most valid for shot Bravo and shot Koon. However, scaling from this source represents, at the present time, the best approach to predicting the expected fallout for the surface water bursts. 2.3 An approximate indication of the radiation levels to be expected on the ships can be made on the basis of the following assumptions: 1. Fallout at any location will deposit over a 2 hour period. 2. The time of arrival of the fallout will be dependent upon the effective wind speed carrying the debris. 3. The fallout will deposit at a constant rate. 4. Yecay of radioactive fallout will follow a curve having a 5. The ship's surface is in effect an infinite plane. slope of -1. 2. ST, LOUIS FRO [V6