Say
Integration, aiter substitution of total error wariance,
bd
2
2
=a ¢
,2
2
.
2
hea 7?
where individual terms represent, respectively, wind uncestainties, Redstone
trajectory errors, and Doorknod sampler trajectory errors, gives the result:
Pel-e
.
(5.8)
Bere & is cloud radius and t is tine between launch and penetration.
Deflecrion errors, all at the one standard deviation level, were esti-
mated to be 2 mils for the Redstone missile, 46 mils for Teak, and 62 mils
for Grange rockets.
The Redstone walue was furnished by the Ammy Ballistic
Missile Agency, Hontsville, Alabama.
In no-wind conditions, the Doorknob
smeplers were estimated to have a 15-ail error.
Addition of the 24-hour
August wariation wector for Jobaston Island increased this no-winod value to
the 46 and G2 mils indicated.
Resulting probabilities, when these estimates
are used, are provided by Figs. 5.11 and 5.12.
The curves in Fig. 5.11 show the negligible effect of the wind on the
cloud, since even a large wind error produces a saell change in probability
of penetration at early times.
Only as revealed in curve c, showing an 80-
seconud-after-burst penetration, would there by any appreciable improvement
in probability by an accurate wind forecast.
The curwes in Fig. 5.12 per-
tain to the Orange ewent and are based on a cloud rise rate extrapolated
fram IT 23-200 and cloud size qualitacively estimated by modified Sachs
scaling frou sea leve1.*
Section 5.1 gives a aore detailed explanation of these
estizates.
The slopes of all curves in Fig. 5.12, except that which refers
to the 40-seconds-after-burst penetration, reveal that a significant improve-
ment can be obtained by a wind forecast or gooa accuracy.
159
JIS