\, ‘.‘ -72e \ outlaw use of the bomb is arrant nonsense, since such outlawry might prove the indispensable crystalizer of a state of balance which operates against use of the bomb, But without the existence of the state of balance--in terms of reciprocal ability to retaliate in kind if the bomb is used—-any treaty purposing %o outlaw the bomb in war would have thrust upon it a burden far heavier than such a treaty can normally bear. aiey ™% bo “Ae ce If the analysis presented in the preceding paredapt is’ correct, we must conclude that of the three situations listed above, that described under (b) is considerably more likely to occur than that presented under (a), and for much the same reasons the situation listed under (c) has a greater degree of probability of occurence than (>). In other words, if the fear of reciprocal use of the bomb is not sufficient to prevent a war from breaking out in the first place, it is hardly likcly to be sufficient to prevent the bomb from being used, and if the bomb is going to be used at all in a conflict it is likely to be used early rather than late, What do these conclusions mean concerning the defense preparations of a nation like the United States? In answering this question, it is necessary first to anticipate the arrument that "the best defense is a strong offense," an argument which it is now fashionablc to link with animadversions on the "Maginot complex." In so far as this doctrine becomes dogma, it may prejudice the security interests of the country and of the world, Although the doctrine is basically true as a general proposition, especially when applied to hostilities already under way, the political facts of life concerning the United States government under its present Constitution make it most probable that if war comes we will receive the first blow rather than deliver it, Thus, ovr most urgent military problem is to reorganize ourselves to survive a vastly more destructive "Pearl Harbor"! than occurred in 1941, Othervrise we shall not be able to take the offensive at all. a"